Center for Geopolitical Studies expert and human rights lawyer, Arnaud Devaly, currently based in Damascus, shares his analysis of Erdogan’s recent moves on the Syrian front.

BELGRADE, SERBIA, June 27, 2022 /24-7PressRelease/ — “The Sultan is back to his old tricks,” he says. “Facing an uncertain presidential election in what was once touted as the pinnacle event of his legacy as the uncontested leader of the Turkish republic, Erdogan’s path to reelection is fraught with obstacles. The economic miracle of the first 20 years of his tenure is but a fading memory. Inflation has soared to 73% while the Turkish Lira has significantly depreciated in a context that has seen him directly get involved in replacing economic experts over dissent bearing which policy to adopt as relates to the interest rate. In other words, the Sultan owns it all.”

Devaley adds that “having relinquished control of major cities to the opposition in recent years, Erdogan hopes to stem the tide of discontent by registering wins in foreign policy. One of his latest moves is the culmination of a series of forays in northern Syria by Turkish armed forces (2016’s Euphrates Shield, 2018’s Olive Branch, 2019’s Peace Spring, and 2020’s Spring Shield). While the first three allowed Turkey to establish outposts and seize significant control of many key areas deep into Syrian territory and throughout the nearly 900 km long border area it shares with Syria, the last move was viewed as a setback that saw Turkey having to concede control of the crucial M4 highway to the Syrian Arab Army as a result of a memorable diplomatic dress-down in Moscow.”

In the article, Arnaud Devaley analyses the relations between the Turkish president and the Iranian Kurdish Barzani clan as well as his position on Kurdistan that he keeps pushing in the international arena, also linking the new offensive in Syria to the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian ongoing conflict that has attracted much more attention from both media and the Western countries.

“To send an obvious and unambiguous message to Ankara, the Russian Aerospatial Forces initiated a simulation
of a massive bombing campaign using the coordinates of Turkish troops in the area under scrutiny Devaley continues. At the same time, Turkey’s actions in Syria haven’t caused an escalation in the relations with the NATO, US, and EU, and no counter-actions similar to the ones targeted at Russia due to the military activities in Ukraine.”

Center for geostrategic studies.
Director General: Dragana Trifković
Anastasa Jovanovica 3. Belgrade, Serbia, 11000

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